The World according to DocBrain

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Numb3rs

On the TV show Numb3rs, a mathematician helps solve crimes by applying math to social problems (ie, where will the fleeing criminal go next). In trying to understand the Middle East, think about Dunbar's number.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number

According to Robin Dunbar, the average person can only maintain a stable relationship with about 150 people. Beyond that, relationships are based on generalization, stereotyping, and bias. The elements that extend Dunbar's number beyond 150 are language, tribalism, and shared culture (religion, country, values, goals, and other loyalties).

With no shared culture, tribal association or language with Sunnis or Shiites, we have a stereotyped view of them, with that stereotype being based mainly on our own thinking. Conversely, members of these groups also have a stereotyped view of us. They also have stereotyped views of each other, as many tend to cluster within their own tribes and customs.

The concept of extending beyond your group to include others is difficult and contains many paradoxical problems. For example, a group can be increased by extending a common language, but in doing so, you actually are increasing the size of the "tribe" that uses that language and decreasing the size of the tribe that uses the other language. The only alternative to shared culture is "separate but equal" which will not be sustainable because of the resulting stereotyping and bias. What to do!?

A common language is not enough, but certainly is a good starting point. This should be followed by learning of a system of polite communication, immersion within each other's culture, and eventual unification of cultures.

The last element is particularly difficult where the choices are seen as polar. However, if you think about it, there is common ground between all groups. It should be emphasized by all parties. The failure to work for the common good leads to "the tragedy of the commons", and in the Middle East, in the true sense of the word tragedy.

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