The World according to DocBrain

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Dependence Day

We depend on government:
  • to pave our roads,
  • to feed us
  • to give us housing
  • to give us handouts
  • to tax the rich and give it to us
  • to keep us comfortable while in jail
  • to give us methadone
  • to give us free health care
  • to give us free medicine
  • to give us police protection
  • to fight fires
  • give us ambulance service
  • to protect our parks and forest lands
  • to fund innovation
  • to run the courts
  • to tell us what we can and cannot buy and sell
  • to tell us where we can and cannot drink and smoke
  • to tell us how much nicotine we can have in a cigarette
  • to take our money and throw it away
  • to add friction to private enterprise, some good, some bad
  • to make laws that effect all of us except those who actually vote on the laws
  • to control the expressions of faith, even when no one is threatened

Happy Dependence Day!!!

How good people do bad things

If you and another person find yourselves with a difference of opinion and both of you seem to be good people, here is the quick way to look for common ground, if not the truth: ask the other person and yourself the one key question:

Why do you want to believe that?

Note that the question is not "Why do you believe" but "Why do you want to believe". Everyone has reasons for their beliefs, but we are digging deeper. What is the substrate? What is the source of the desire for belief?

Some people will see no difference in the two questions, but this is due to inadequate insight.

Unless it is something you have personally witnessed or experienced, you are relying on others for information. Even those things we personally witness or experience are subject to filtering and bias. So, dig deep.

Here are some of the errors that arise.

A. Measurement/observation error
  • You see only what you want to see or expect to see. You sample may be biased. Your tools for measurement may be flawed. Your questions may distort the outcome (for example, the reason why IQ tests are said to have racial bias and why some political polls produce strange results).

B. Attribution error

  • You reach a conclusion of cause and effect which is biased. You toss out other possibilities or exclude them without proper analysis. You may not even consider or be aware of other possible conclusions. You may then defend your conclusions, not because they are the only possible answer, but because they are your answer, or the answer you have been led to believe (see prior post about trust).
Why worry so much about all of this?

Unintended Consequences, Unexpected Results
This is where all hypotheses meet reality. A hypothesis that is correct will have no unintended consequences, no unexpected downside. If an unintended consequence develops or can be foreseen, you are defending an error. If so, then you really need to ask yourself "Why did I defend something that is clearly wrong?" Blowing off unintended consequences as inconsequential begs the question and shows that you are still in the grip of a belief rather than reality. If you say "all men are liars" and you meet one honest man, or if you believe that food stamps help the poor and you find one poor person selling food stamps for drugs, you cannot simply say "well, here is one exception, but my theory still stands" Your theory was reduced to an erroneous hypothesis and yet you still defend it. "Why do you still believe?" is the question to be answered.
As you can see, this is a circular loop. If you don't ask yourself why you believe at the beginning, then at the end, when the chickens come home to roost, you will need to ask yourself the same question anyways. The only other alternative is to continue in a belief system that is flawed.
The problem with those who do not advocate change is that they are stuck with the flaws of the present, which are known. The problem with those who advocate change is that, unless they are closer to the truth, they will produce new flaws, which may be even worse than the ones they were trying to fix. Small changes, done in test situations, are almost always the best ways to go.

Monday, June 29, 2009

It's True! It's Damn True!

Here are the three rules of thought.
  • You believe what you see with your own eyes.
  • You trust people who tell you things you believe.
  • You believe things people you trust tell you.

The first step is obvious. It is the principle by which magic is such a compelling stage act. You see things that defy your established notion of the believeable. The magician appears to be trustworthy. You know there is a "trick" but cannot see it.

The second step is the way we get attachments to others. A person tells you things you already believe. You may not have actually phrased it the way it is presented, but it resonates with you.

The third step is where you are led. You trust a person. That person tells you something and you accept it as being true.

This is where things get complicated, so here is an example. A person you trust tells you to trust scientists who tell you that industrialization causes global warming. You cannot verify the first step from personal observation (you personally have not measured global warming). You cannot even verify step 2, because you have not compared other things these scientists have said about other things that you can personally verify. You just go on from step 3. When there is conflicting data, you will dismiss it. When there is confirming data, you will just accept it. You will not even consider other possibilities without raising the shield of skepticism (which is just a suspension of trust). When confronted with data that is hard to deflect, you may even become angry.

I see these intellectual conflicts all the time and am as guilty of them as the next person. However, there is a point at which we must decide if there are natural laws, ones that transcend viewpoints. DocBrain believes that there are. These are the things you see for yourself, those that propel civilization forward and at the same time create peace, relieve suffering and ignorance, and reduce conflict.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

People

If you believe that each person is basically good, then you run through the following logical steps.
  • There are always a few bad apples, but most people are good
  • Treat everyone as an equal, with equal rights under the law
  • Try to help each person overcome personal limits (ie, difficulty learning, addiction, failure to live a healthy life) but allow each person the honor of being responsible for his own outcome.
  • Laws that control the few individuals who would take advantage of the many.
  • Each person is a new opportunity to do good, but large masses of people may overrun the resources of the planet.

If you believe that each person is basically out for himself, that individuals are basically evil, then you run through the following logical steps.

  • There may be a few good guys, but most people are bad
  • We need an intricate legal system to control all the evil people out there
  • A legal system should try to equalize groups, not individuals, as individuals will combine their evil to attack and oppress others. Justice for individuals is silly, as individuals themselves are not just. We just need to keep order among the thieves and murderers that make up mankind.
  • Each person is a new opportunity to do evil and it is true that large masses of people may overrun the resources of the planet, but we cannot try to control populations until all groups are equal.

There is no way to absolutely prove either position. However, consider this. If you believe in the second position, you see the world teeming with evil, self-centered individuals, banding together in groups for the sole purpose of dominating others. This century's winner may be next century's loser. A constant clamor for wealth and power for evil purposes. Nothing noble about humans. Nothing "divine". Just living organisms rushing about like smarter ant colonies, breeding and fighting for limited morsels. If there is a God, he is in the governments and religions that control all these insects.

If you believe in the first position, you see a world of potential. A world of good people, sometimes misled by a few evil, power hungry individuals who seek to pervert humanity. These individuals come to power through, for example, government and religion. If there is a God, he is in the hearts and minds of individual men and women, in our best selves, to which each of us strives. You see government and religion as imperfect means to control limited evil, that themselves become corrupted by the very individuals who seek power and position, and produce even greater evil. Those who seek office and authority are most often those who believe in government and religion as the answer to the problem of people, when in fact people are the answer to the problems of government and religion by bringing good, common sense.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

If I ran Iran

The path of nuclear armament and hostility to all that is not Iran/Islamic fundamentalism is unlikely to bear great fruits in the future. Even nuclear arms will not provide Iran with any major success. Iran estimates 136 billion barrels of oil, but perhaps has only about 36 billion that is actually there and accessable. They could use their army to try to take other oil fields, such as those in southern Iraq or in Kuwait, but this would be strongly opposed both locally and internationally.

In the longer term, the people of Iran are its greatest asset. The Persian empire was producing great thinkers and a great culture when the west was a barbarian expanse. The Persian people and the arabs influenced by them have a strong tie to the legacy of science and the arts. A market for their abilities is the free market, the universities and research facilities of the west and east. They can go to much greater heights as part of the culture of man than as outsiders.

For example, Iran has developed biopharmaceuticals which it could market to the west.

The people of Iran (with the exception of the fundamentalists) want closer ties with the west, want to become part of the modern world, want the freedom to explore their humanity beyond the stifling restraint of religion backed by the guns of government.

If I ran Iran, I would create a more open society, would move away from the nuclear goals and towards an alliance with the west and east, becoming the centerpiece of intellectual development and industry in the Middle East. When the oil is gone, there would be prosperity and peace. A fitting tribute for Darius' and Xerxes' descendants.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Imagine no more countries

The concept of a united world with no countries seems ideal. Religion often is accused of being the root cause of hate and death. Religion can only do this from a position of power, and power comes from government, be it tribal leadership, a king, a dictator, or the leader of a republic.

As part of our nature, we are attracted to power. We want to be powerful and want our leader to reflect or enhance our power. Even Gandhi exuded a peaceful power, a confidence in what is right. We are not swayed to support a leader because he makes sense. We are swayed because his power leads us to view his positions as making sense.

One of the aspects of power is to lead people, either towards something or against someone, often both.

In Obama, we have the typical leader-follower situation. He is reshuffling the deck, because he can.

If there were just one world government, there would be one world leader. That leader would have to be leading us towards something and/or against someone, and would use his specific agenda to make that happen. This would limit opposition, alternative approaches to problems, and would reduce the opportunity to find a better solution for the problems that beset humanity and the world. And if you were on the wrong side of his equation for the future, you would have no options.

Imagine a world with no genetic mutations. There would be no evolution, no progress. The concept of one world government is unnatural and unhealthy.

However, peace is due to the acceptance of the status quo of power. For example, radical Islam fundamentalism believes that they can express more power, and the proof of it is in the results of their activities since the late 1970s. Their ability to do this comes from their leaders, who seem powerful. The empowerment of those who believe in peaceful coexistence with the West and with Israel has to be the goal of our country. And the demonstration of the weakness of those who oppose that position.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Pushing a string

The latest concept in health care is pay for performance, where a physician is held responsible for measurable outcomes, such as blood sugars, blood pressure, etc. If there ever was an idea that will lead to unintended consequences, this is it! With no power to enforce adherence to therapy, physicians will be further caught between patients who resist lifestyle change and government/big insurance that doesn't want to pay for services. Just as some teachers teach to a standardized test, some physicians will treat to performance. They will find ways to cut loose those who do not adhere to therapy or who have conditions too difficult to control. Others will feel the obligation to treat all patients, only to find their incomes shrinking or even being unable to pay their expenses.

This idea has caught on because there are fewer physcians to monitor than patients, so reward and punishment can be administered to a smaller group.

If we believe that government, big insurance and lawyers are the answers to the problems in health care, why don't we apply these "answers" directly to the general population?
  • Taxes on unhealthy foods, used to fund health care
  • Taxes on obesity/BMI.
  • Taxes on non-adherence to therapy for chronic diseases (pharmacies keep detailed records of med refills)
  • Rating of individuals by insurance companies for preventable diseases
  • Mandating 1 hour a day of exercise programming on each TV station
  • Group exercise in public parks
  • Suing patients for doctor-shopping; use of surveilance for those who claim disability.

You get the idea. Bring the chickens home to roost, not for the physicians, but for the individuals who bring up the cost of care by not taking care of preventable and treatable conditions.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Greenie, greenier, greeniest!

We have global climate change, the earth is in the balance. And who do we have to thank? Yes, YOU! All of you! There are too many of YOU out there!

Don't you want to go green, save the earth? You do? Wonderful! So, what is the problem and how can we solve it?

The Problem: There are just too many people. Each of us, even those living in the tropical rainforests, has a carbon footprint. Even if everyone went back to nature, the carbon footprint is still too large.

The Solution: Bring back the controls that the earth had on us. A world population of a few million instead of a few billion is within our grasp. What are these controls, you ask? There are three.

1. Famine. If we just made enough food for ourselves, that would do just fine. We should raise the price of food. Animals can fend for themselves. Those animals that depend on us are overpopulated themselves and can afford a population drop. Their methane footprint is also a problem.
2. Disease. People now survive acute illnesses. The pandemics, and even the little epidemics and plagues were wonderful in taking out the old and infirm and also the young, usually before they had the opportunity to reach adulthood and breed more children.
3. War. What is it good for? Thinning the ranks of the breeding stock! Many people have been killed by governments waging war for beliefs, land, genetic purity, etc. And these are the young people, just getting ready to multiply. While this is not a "natural" control, it is part of our social nature, so is "natural".

I am surprised that none of the "green" advocates have championed the root solutions to the problem.

Lastly, some people just want to help now, in a small way. For them, I provide the following link

http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Top_100_ways_to_die

See ya!

A book you must read

http://www.amazon.com/Politically-Incorrect-Guide-Middle-Guides/dp/1596980516

Martin Sieff puts it all together into a compelling theory about the Middle East, backed with a review of the history of this region. Ahmadinejad's victory was clearly predicted by this book.

The overall lesson of this book. Re-application of past failures will lead to future failures; re-application of past successes may be the way to future success.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Bredding

DocBrain believes that gay marriage will become universally accepted in the USA during his lifetime. For one reason: it is becoming universally accepted that sexual orientation may not be a choice as much as pre-programmed.

The question of nature, nurture and outcome has perplexed liberals and conservatives. Conservatives believe that all is modifiable, that we each control our own destinies. Liberals believe that nothing is modifiable, that we each are the direct product of our genetic and environmental forces. In the conservative case, we can judge everyone by a common narrow standard. In the liberal case, who are we to judge anyone?

What does science have to say about this?

While much has been written, it appears that we have the ability to change ourselves within a relatively large range of behaviors and actions, but for some people it requires more effort than for others. If we use the degree of effort as the main criterion, we wind up with a more liberal positon. If we use value of outcome as the main criterion, we wind up with a more conservative position.

As posted elsewhere, we are truly free to do anything that does not run foul of principle and practicality. Anything else is just false freedom, where the chickens will come home to roost. It is important that the law of man be in concert with the other principles and with practicality or we wind up with untenable situations.

The law of man should acknowledge the difficulty of change but should set standards, goals and directions.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

They write my material...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31233307

No sooner did the electrons dry on my last blog than the Senate passed a law to limit nicotine in cigarettes. While DocBrain is a strong believer in the harm of tobacco products, this is as wrong-headed as trying to defend suggesting that a baseball player have sex with a 14 year old because you want to seem uberliberal, funny and cool.

How could anything go wrong, you may ask. Well, here we go.

1. Nicotine is a drug. The higher the dose, the more adverse reactions until you build up a tolerance. This is why many people who try smoking a cigarette get sick and never smoke again. Old School was to let your kid smoke a pack of Luckies. When he threw up after the 5th cigarette, he knew that smoking was not for him. Now, it will be easier to ramp up.
2. High nicotine cigarettes will seem "cool" as they are now outlawed.
3. You can always roll your own. This will become cool again.
4. Once a person has developed a tolerance to nicotine, it produces a feeling of calm and relaxation. Lower dose/cigarette will mean more cigarettes/day. If the person is on a fixed budget, there will be less money for other things, perhaps food for the children.
5. A black market will arise for high nicotine cigarettes, with the money going to organized crime or even terrorism.
6. A lower nicotine cigarette will produce the image that it is safer, leading to less fears about smoking as Congress has made cigarettes "safer". Anyone who knows about the risks of smoking knows that nicotine is only a partial player, as tars and other substances, including possibly the heat itself, are carcinogenic and reduce lung function.
7. Bans on high alcohol content beer didn't work in the past. Hell, bans on marijuana and street drugs aren't working now.

This is a partial list.

In the desire to protect a group (here we go with "groups" again) from the overwhelming wealth and power of the tobacco industry (here we go with "social injustice" again), the liberals have used their limited knowledge about tobacco and addiction (here we go with "junk science" again) and have enacted a new law that will exude unintended consequence and will make the problem worse rather than better.

Rather than reducing nicotine by 50%, why not reduce the maximum prenatal age for abortion from 9 months (partial birth) by 50% to the middle of the second trimester? Oh, yes. That is one "group" that we don't care about!

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

The Mental Disorders

Conservatism: How being a conservative is a mental disorder

1. Failing to embrace progress. By denying the value of new things, conservatives blind themselves to the benefits of progress.
2. Clinging to dubious "core values". Some "core values that have stood the test of time" turn out to be bogus. We see "core values" falling all the time with resultant positive effects. Eliminating slavery, allowing women to vote, equal access to public institutions for people of all races and religions are some obvious examples. In the future, we will come to embrace monogamous gay marriage. The affront to G-d is lack of love.

The positives of Conservatism:
1. The belief in being fair to individuals. The concept of "blind justice"
2. The belief in the supremacy of freedom beyond the scope of a few core values and core laws.
3. The belief that the cream rises to the top, leading to the striving of individuals for "self best".


Liberalism: How being a liberal is a mental disorder:
1. Failure to see unintended consequences of instituted changes. Indeed, there is an invisible hand, and when liberals freely change things they often get more trouble than they started with. There are too many examples of this to list. Interfering with financial markets, health care, poverty, to name three obvious areas, has led to trillions of dollars of debt and to much suffering.
2. Belief in and acting on junk science. As I have pointed out previously in this blog, there are levels of truth, some absolute (ie, in mathematics), some highly probable (physics and chemistry), and some most dubious (social/political science). This ties to item #1, where junk science leads to acts with unintended, bad consequences, with the results often worse than where we started. Liberals believe in the phrase "Do Something!" Often, the best action is to confirm findings and test in a small way, using appropriate endpoints before unleashing your "grand scheme" on the masses and the invisible hand.
3. Belief in fairness to groups as trumping fairness to individuals. A company does not hire a person. If I told you that person was not the best qualified for the job, that would probably settle it for a conservative. But if I told you that person was from a poor home, was African-American, was overweight, was female, was short, was blind, and that the person hired was male, white, tall, sighted and thin, you would be hard pressed to find a liberal who would not want to know more. Perhaps this is a case of group discrimination! Liberals believe that Justice should be peeking out of a corner of the blindfold. This is truly absurd. It is the liberal counterpart of the conservative "good old boy" network turned on its head. If one is bad, the other is worse. You cannot make up for bad behavior with other bad behavior. This is de facto retribution, which is the ultimate wrong.
4. The belief in equality as the ultimate good. There was a restaurant near my home. The owners clearly loved bean curd, as the name of the restaurant was "The Bean Curd House". It did not succeed, perhaps because they made a fatal assumption: they liked bean curd so everyone likes bean curd. The fallacy of equality is the major fallacy of liberalism. The only place where equality has a role, liberals oppose it: in the courts, where Justice should be blind to the differences in people. In all other areas, people are clearly unequal, to the great benefit of humanity and the world. Under the banner of equality, liberals try to impose democracies over people who would prefer strong autocratic leaders, liberals make it OK to be a pregnant teen, and liberals penalize success and reward laxitude. Equality as an institutional directive reduces the impact of object lessions, charity and role models.
5. Liberals believe that group inequality of wealth, power, influence, status, position = social injustice. This is the opposite of the conservative belief that cream rises to the top. Consequently, any group that does not have equal percentage of involvement in a specific area is the target of social injustice. One example that confounds this is the percent of African-Americans who are math professors. This number was traditionally low. As civil rights progressed, this number became higher. In the post civil rights era, the number has fallen again. How can we have an African-American President, institutions of higher learning that clearly have a liberal bent, and yet have a decline in math professors? Maybe it isn't always "social injustice". Maybe it sometimes is just individual preferences?

The positive of Liberalism:
1. Liberalism points out areas where conservative "values" are ethically wrong. Unfortunately, Liberals then move to make sweeping (instead of incremental and tested) changes that lead to unintended consequences.
2. Liberals do like to adopt new science.

An unfettered Conservatism leads to no real progress. An unfettered Liberalism leads us to more problems than we started with. We need to position ourselves somewhere between. We need to be Conservative, but to also allow Liberal experimentation to fine tune new concepts and ideas before widespread adoption.

Thursday, June 04, 2009

A Healthy Diatribe

If you think health care is expensive because of technology, pharma, doctors, or hospitals trying to gouge patients, think again.

In 1960, the average person paid about 4% of annual income on health care. In 2003, it was 13.4%. Doctors, nurses, hospitals, pharma, evolving technology were all present in 1960 as now. What has changed? As the phrase goes, follow the money.

Here are some clues:
1. In 1960 most people died of acute disease, now it is chronic illness.
2. More people in "health care" who are not service providers. Each of these requires expenditure, from salary to health benefits to buildings in prominent metropolitan areas to house their activities. Some even work in your hospital or your office, handling the red tape.
3. More government, regulations, friction.
4. More lawsuits that result in a financial drain but little reduction in the overall incidence of malpractice worthy events.
5. Managed care organizations focus on short term costs when what we need is a focus on reducing the burden of chronic disease by maintaining health. Managed care creates friction that leads to long term problems that we, the people, wind up paying for through government programs as patients with chronic disease lose their jobs and go on social health programs such as Medicare.

Adam Smith has left the building on health care a long time ago. We exist in a regulated environment where there are two payors (employers and taxpayers) and many administrators (government, managed care).