Treason: balancing fear and the law
Pre-Crime Statistic = (The magnitude of the potential harm) x (the probability that the people identified are actually going to do the act)
In the movie "Minority Report" the probability was 100% as psychics were used to tell the future; the magnitude varied according to each crime. The decision was to apprehend all pre-criminals due to the high probability (100%).
In the real world, we do not know the probability, but we know the potential harm. The question: what is the value of the Pre-Crime Statistic that should trigger a preventative action?
A pre-crime true story (DocBrain was there): An 18 month old child is taken to the ER with a broken arm. The child is dirty and bruised. He is accompanied by his mother. His mother had two other children (one was a twin of the child in the ER) whom she killed at different times in bouts of depression/drug use. CYS (children and youth services) is notified but, as this woman claims that this child fell down steps, CYS decides that this case does not require further investigation. Two weeks later this child returns to the hospital with multiple skull fractures, after having been beaten by the mother. The child dies. If the behavior of CYS in this case appalls you, then you are a believer in the need for pre-crime assessment. If you think, "Well, isn't that strange! I would never have expected that ending for this story!" then you may be a pre-crime non-believer.
If you believe that 9-11 should have been prevented, then you are a pre-crime believer. The question becomes: at what number do you trigger the pre-crime statistic to intercept, detain and imprison the pre-criminal?
What are the elements that go into determining probability of the person being a pre-perpetrator? Should descriptors of the person be a consideration? In the politically correct world, we should not consider external appearance. Yet, this is known to be valuable, but not foolproof. Nothing in statistics is foolproof. So, DocBrain thinks that using statistically likely data is worthwhile. We do it everyday. The percent of drunk drivers who cause accidents is low, but is significantly higher than the percent of sober drivers causing accidents. Similarly, the percent of young Arab men who express hatred towards America who actually are planning to cause terror is low, but substantially higher than elderly white members of DAR. Keeping data and statistics can help us to do better in the war against terrorism and can help us do better with our pre-crime statistic.
In the movie "Minority Report" the probability was 100% as psychics were used to tell the future; the magnitude varied according to each crime. The decision was to apprehend all pre-criminals due to the high probability (100%).
In the real world, we do not know the probability, but we know the potential harm. The question: what is the value of the Pre-Crime Statistic that should trigger a preventative action?
A pre-crime true story (DocBrain was there): An 18 month old child is taken to the ER with a broken arm. The child is dirty and bruised. He is accompanied by his mother. His mother had two other children (one was a twin of the child in the ER) whom she killed at different times in bouts of depression/drug use. CYS (children and youth services) is notified but, as this woman claims that this child fell down steps, CYS decides that this case does not require further investigation. Two weeks later this child returns to the hospital with multiple skull fractures, after having been beaten by the mother. The child dies. If the behavior of CYS in this case appalls you, then you are a believer in the need for pre-crime assessment. If you think, "Well, isn't that strange! I would never have expected that ending for this story!" then you may be a pre-crime non-believer.
If you believe that 9-11 should have been prevented, then you are a pre-crime believer. The question becomes: at what number do you trigger the pre-crime statistic to intercept, detain and imprison the pre-criminal?
What are the elements that go into determining probability of the person being a pre-perpetrator? Should descriptors of the person be a consideration? In the politically correct world, we should not consider external appearance. Yet, this is known to be valuable, but not foolproof. Nothing in statistics is foolproof. So, DocBrain thinks that using statistically likely data is worthwhile. We do it everyday. The percent of drunk drivers who cause accidents is low, but is significantly higher than the percent of sober drivers causing accidents. Similarly, the percent of young Arab men who express hatred towards America who actually are planning to cause terror is low, but substantially higher than elderly white members of DAR. Keeping data and statistics can help us to do better in the war against terrorism and can help us do better with our pre-crime statistic.
posted by DocBrain at
5:15 AM
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